The most significant change in Russian/world relations happened this summer when Russia violated Georgia’s sovereign territory. The world is a different place than it was before the conflict – the reaction of world leaders shows that much.
Europe is greatly concerned by Russia’s violation of Georgian borders. The conflict motivated Poland to sign a ballistic missile defense treaty with the United States. They delayed for 18 months, but when Russia invaded Georgia, they quickly signed the treaty with additional clauses, including mutual defense.
Poland wants direct U.S. intervention for fear that NATO’s reaction may be too slow. They want help to come while they are still alive.
Russia has caused European leaders to reconsider their dealings with Russia. The EU called an emergency meeting of its 27 leaders to reevaluate where they stand with Russia. Separately, Germany has declared that they do not want to be dependent on Russia for oil and have instead turned to Iran. The biggest reconsideration, however, is happening in the Ukrainian government right now. The ruling, pro-Western “Orange” coalition, established in 2004, has dissolved due to internal disputes over whether they should ally with Russia.
How did it come to this? Russia violated and occupied Georgia’s sovereign territory, but the escalation of tensions did not stop there. The U.S., already having ties with Georgia, but unwilling to give Russia casus belli, decided to show support by sending relief aid to Georgia with elements of the U.S. 6th Fleet, including the fleet’s flagship, the USS Mount Whitney. Prime Minister Putin’s vowed “response” to this was to land strategic (nuclear capable) bombers in Venezuela and schedule naval maneuvers with them for this winter.
Escalating tensions further, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez has, in an unrelated incident, expelled the U.S. ambassador from Venezuela as well as recalled his own from the states until a new U.S. president is chosen.
To top everything off, Russia has recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has stationed soldiers there, and has signed a military cooperation treaty with them. As Dmitry Medvedev said, Russia is not afraid of another Cold War.
If Russia has no fear of pitting itself against the West, what could they do? The Cold War is over; are they even a threat now? The answer is that they could be. The West is worried that Russia will use its economy as a weapon. In January of 2006 and 2007, Russia, in disputes with Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine, cut off their oil in the dead of winter. Russia has also opposed sanctions against Iran, has signed multibillion dollar military agreements with them, and is helping Iran build their nuclear facility in Bushehr.
Finally, Russia, which has increased its military budget for next year by 25 percent, could initiate another Georgia incident in its “sphere of influence,” most likely Ukraine or Moldova. This is one reason why Ukraine is likely to elect leaders who will ally with Russia.
If you have not heard of these important events, that is understandable. The information could not have come at a worse time. At least four major events are distracting us from seeing what Russia has done. Events such as the 2008 Olympics, Hurricane Ike, economic woes, and the quintessential black hole of them all, the 2008 U.S. election.
So is the world headed to a new, different kind of Cold War? It depends on who we elect as president and how the EU, U.N., and NATO decide to respond. The next few months will be key. But if I were you, I would buy a parka because it is likely to get cold this winter.
